Analysis of the predictive role and new proposal for surgical strategies based on the modified Tomita and Tokuhashi scoring systems for spinal metastasis

BACKGROUND We sought to identify preoperative factors significantly correlated with survival. We also aimed to evaluate the validity of the prognostic scores in the Tomita and Tokuhashi systems and discuss several aspects to improve the predictive accuracy of these systems. Moreover, we suggest modified criteria for selecting treatment strategies. METHODS In total, the outcomes of 112 patients with spinal metastasis who underwent surgery between January 2006 and June 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. The validity of the prognostic scores was assessed on the basis of their correlation with survival. For various primary malignancies, new scoring criteria were applied in each system according to the survival results obtained in this study. Each revised scoring system was adjusted with a similar principle of scoring as described previously. Patient survival according to each preoperative factor was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method. The predictive value of each scoring system was evaluated by the log-rank test and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS The interval from the diagnosis of the primary malignancy to that of spinal metastasis (p = 0.023) and the interval from the diagnosis of spinal metastasis to surgery (p = 0.039) were significantly correlated with survival. Regarding Tokuhashi scores, the correlation coefficient was 0.790 before adjustment (p = 0.001) and 0.853 after adjustment (p < 0.001). For Tomita scores, the correlation coefficient was -0.994 (p < 0.001) both before and after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS Tomita scores more accurately predicted survival than Tokuhashi scores. It is helpful to evaluate both scoring systems with adjustment for primary malignancy depending on the clinical setting. Patients with Tomita scores less than or equal to 8 and Tokuhashi scores greater than or equal to 6 are recommended to undergo surgical management.